1997  ·  2011  ·  2025  ·  Now  ·  Next

From here, the signalsignalstacktradelayerfuturecurvepath is clear.

Former research analyst, hedge-fund investor, two-time founder, EIR, AWS & Stripe operator — now advising and investing at the intersection of AI infrastructure and capital markets. Writing it all down From the Porch.

From the Porch

Recent writing

Read here before you decide whether to subscribe. No obligation.

The Signals That Move Stocks Aren't Public

When the future starts in private markets, analysts need new tools. Enter STAX.

Dec 9

Going Public Kinda Sucks Now

And that changes everything about how public markets get their signals.

Dec 15

1997. 2011. 2025.

The third time I've felt this feeling about a technology wave. And what I think it means.

Nov 20
All posts on Substack →
Ask the Porch

Get my actual take

Ask anything about AI infrastructure, market cycles, deals, or what I'm watching. This AI is trained on my writing and thinks the way I think.

Ask about the STAX framework, the three waves thesis, what I think about specific companies or sectors, my take on the CoreWeave IPO, whether the AI boom is a bubble — anything you'd normally have to email me about.

Ask the Porch
Hey — ask me anything. I'm here to give you my actual take, not a generic answer. What's on your mind?
The arc

Three decades at the intersection
of capital and compute

Each cycle taught me something different. Click an era to explore.

1997–2004 Banking
2004–2013 Investing
2010–2014 Founder
2014–2023 Big Tech
2023–Now AI Infra

1997–2004

Banking & Research

ING Barings and JPMorgan H&Q during the dotcom boom. I was one of those smart-ass inexperienced analysts — Ferragamo tie, big paycheck, bigger ego, no experience, no clue. I covered Internet infrastructure companies, earned Institutional Investor Homerun Hitter in 1998, and watched the whole thing rise and fall from inside the machine. The lesson: cycles are real, timing is not. And the companies that build the actual physical infrastructure — the Equinix types — survive every wave.

ING Barings JPMorgan H&Q Internet infrastructure Equity research Dotcom

2004–2013

Hedge Funds & VC

MLH Capital and Ardsley Partners on the hedge fund side. Comcast Ventures and Broadway Video Ventures as VC/EIR. Fund investments in Eniac Ventures, Factorial Capital, and Symmetry Peak. Early calls on social, mobile, and cloud computing. This is where I learned the difference between seeing something early and having the conviction to act on it — they're not the same skill.

MLH Capital Ardsley Partners Comcast Ventures Eniac Ventures Factorial Capital

2010–2014

Founder × 2

Tigerbow: real gifts sent to email addresses. Two to three years of blood and fundraising. Failed. Philo: social television check-in. Launched in 2010, pioneered the category, sold the company. Also failed in the sense that mattered. Both post-mortems are public because I think transparency about failure is underrated in a world that mostly celebrates wins. And by the way — I could rebuild both working prototypes in a weekend now. That delta is the thesis.

Tigerbow Philo Consumer tech

2014–2023

AWS & Stripe

Co-built the startup team at AWS. When I joined, ~100% of startups ran on cloud but cloud was under 10% of enterprise IT spend. I co-authored the playbook that helped flip that ratio. Then Stripe — same mission, different layer of the stack. Nine years inside two of the defining infrastructure companies of the cloud era. The best seat I've had for understanding how technology gets adopted at scale, and why the gap between startup adoption and enterprise adoption is the most reliable signal in tech.

Amazon Web Services Stripe Startup GTM Cloud adoption

2023–Now

AI Infrastructure

Porch Capital. Advising and investing at the intersection of AI infrastructure and capital markets. CoreWeave (IPO 2025), Groq (mostly acquired by Nvidia 2025), Crusoe, and a growing roster of companies building the physical and computational layer of the AI era. Writing "From the Porch" for investors, operators, and people who like to get in early. And building STAX — a system for reading startup architecture as a forward curve for public market earnings.

CoreWeave Groq Crusoe AI infrastructure STAX
What I'm watching

Live thesis

Updated when my views shift. Not a static page.

⚙️

The GPU-Native Stack

Software is now model-driven and running directly on GPU-like logic. That shift is forcing a full rebuild of the world's digital infrastructure — from applications down through cloud and networking.

Updated April 2026 · See related posts →

🔁

Agentic Compounding Inference

Inference is now continuous and accelerating. Agentic systems — models calling other models — turn that loop exponential, running faster and more often than any human ever could.

Updated April 2026 · See related posts →

💰

The Financialization of Compute

Compute is becoming a financeable asset class — more like electricity, oil, railroads, and bandwidth than traditional hardware. Capital is already organizing around it.

Updated April 2026 · See related posts →

🎯

Bottleneck Whack-a-Mole

AI infrastructure is a sequence of bottlenecks. GPUs gave way to power, to memory, to capital, and the whack-a-mole persists. SRAM systems help HBM shortages, agentic workloads hit CPU-bound orchestration and networking constraints. The opportunity is in spotting what's starting to strain before the market does.

Updated April 2026 · See related posts →

Related posts

Press & media

In the press and on air

Podcasts, interviews, and coverage — updated regularly.

HBM, SRAM, and the Next AI Bottlenecks — The Information TV
TV Interview

HBM, SRAM, and the Next AI Bottlenecks

The Information TV (TITV) · Mar 23, 2026

AI Marketers Guild podcast with David Levy
Podcast

How Startups Signal Tech Adoption — Before Anyone Else

AI Marketers Guild · Jan 28, 2026

Nvidia's Investment in CoreWeave — The Information TV
TV Interview

Nvidia's Investment in CoreWeave and What It Signals

The Information TV (TITV) · Jan 27, 2026

Work with me

What I do (when it matters)

I work with companies building at the intersection of AI infrastructure and capital markets — at the moments that actually matter.

🧠
Thought
Narrative, Positioning & Market Intelligence
  • Move you out of feature competition and into narrative advantage.
  • Craft and sharpen how your company is understood by investors, partners, and the market.
  • Turn complex technology into clear, differentiated positioning.
  • Help you present the company the way it should be seen.
  • Pattern recognition from being early to multiple waves — and knowing what that looks like from inside.
💰
Capital
Strategy & Transactions
  • Bring an operator + investor lens to how deals actually get done.
  • Advise on how, when, and whether to raise capital.
  • Shape fundraising strategy, positioning, and timing.
  • Think through strategic transactions, partnerships, and outcomes.
🚀
Growth
Connections, GTM & Market Access
  • Connect you to the right investors, operators, and partners.
  • Frame the interaction — not just the intro.
  • Help you think through go-to-market at inflection points.
  • Built across banking, hedge funds, big tech, and venture.
  • Used selectively, where it creates real leverage.
Get in touch

Let's talk

I work with a small number of companies at a time. If you're building in AI infrastructure or compute and think there's a fit, reach out directly.

Thought. Capital. Growth.

Most companies get one right. The best get all three.

Coming in 2026

The STartup Architecture indeX

Public markets react. Private markets predict. And in 2026, the first real signals come from startups — meaning research needs a new way to see the future before it shows up in earnings calls.

  • GPU mix — before NVDA earnings
  • Inference cost curves — before software guides margins
  • Cloud routing shifts — before hyperscalers report capex
  • Workflow deletion — before SaaS deceleration becomes obvious
  • Model adoption drift — before any S-1 gets filed

Get notified when STAX launches

STAX · Signal Feed Live
Claude / Anthropic
38% ↑ 12%
OpenAI / GPT-4o
31% ↓ 8%
Groq (inference)
18% ↑ 5%
Mistral / Open source
24% →
AWS Bedrock
19% ↓ 3%
Google Vertex
11% →

🔒 Full feed unlocked for subscribers